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54 publications • Ordre chronologique

How a rightward turn in Latin American politics benefits Israel
Publié
À la une

The recent rightward shift in the Latin American political scene largely benefits Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. From Chile to Colombia, new presidents change their attitudes towards Jerusalem, marking a radical departure from their predecessors’ antagonistic stance. They follow the lead of other heads of state, like Argentina’s Javier Milei or El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, who have always been staunchly and unconditionally pro-Israel. Portrayed as „Latin Trumps”, they usually frame their support for the Jewish State as a wider, joint effort to safeguard Judeo-Christian values. The growing influence of Evangelical Churches in South & Central America has become an important factor, shaping the political ambiance in the entire region. It is also worth mentioning deepening economic ties, with Israeli high-tech companies and military contractors providing defense equipment and intelligence solutions to armies and police forces across the Western hemisphere.

Coopération Régionale
What Future for the Meccah Joint Defense Agreement? Five Signposts
Publié
À la une

On August 7, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed the “Meccah Joint Defense Agreement”, an event which has shaken the region even though talks about establishing such an alliance had been ongoing for several months. Is the conclusion of this new collective defense agreement truly a turning point in the history of the Middle East ? Or just a piece of parchment which will soon disappear in the dustbin of history ? The answer is probably something in between.

Stratégies de Défense
The Collapse of the U.S.–Iran Understanding: A Turning Point for Gulf Security?
Publié
À la une

The collapse of the June 2026 U.S.–Iran understanding has exposed the limitations of a Gulf security architecture built primarily on military deterrence. This paper argues that, while sustained American engagement remains indispensable, Gulf states must complement deterrence with stronger critical-infrastructure protection, deeper GCC security cooperation, and greater institutional resilience.

Gestion des Conflits
The UAE in the U.S.–China Technology Rivalry
The UAE in the U.S.–China Technology Rivalry
Marek Magierowski28 July 20265 min
Publié
À la une

Washington’s decision to grant the United Arab Emirates privileged access to advanced artificial-intelligence chips represents a strategic wager: that technological cooperation can anchor Abu Dhabi more firmly within the American sphere of influence. Yet the previous links with China of G42, the UAE’s state-backed artificial-intelligence and technology conglomerate, combined with controversies surrounding Emirati investments in businesses connected to the Trump family, have intensified concerns over security, transparency, and the future of American export controls.

Ordre Mondial
Europe, IMEC, and the Emerging Syrian-Turkish Corridor
Publié
À la une

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made alternative Eurasian trade routes an urgent necessity. Yet replacing IMEC’s Israeli Mediterranean anchor with a corridor through Syria and Turkey would not eliminate Europe’s vulnerability; it would exchange dependence on a maritime chokepoint for infrastructural reliance on a fragile Syrian state and strategic dependence on Ankara. Europe should expand and reinforce IMEC, not dismantle its original architecture.

Coopération Régionale
Finland’s Values-Based Realism: A Doctrine in Search of Consistency

President Alexander Stubb’s values-based realism captures Finland's need to defend democratic principles while dealing pragmatically with powers that do not share them. Its credibility, however, depends on whether Helsinki can explain consistently when values constrain policy and when national interests justify compromise.

Ordre Mondial
The Turkish Exception: NATO, Strategic Impunity, and Israel’s Eastern Mediterranean Dilemma

Turkey’s growing hostility toward Israel is no longer a matter of rhetoric alone. Ankara’s support for Hamas, its entrenchment in Syria, its maritime assertiveness, its Russian defense ties, and its possible return to the F-35 program expose a strategic contradiction inside the Western alliance. Israel’s partnership with Greece and Cyprus is necessary, but it is not enough.

Gestion des Conflits
Strategic Sequencing and Regional Security: Assessing the U.S.–Iran Interim Arrangement

The U.S.–Iran interim arrangement may reduce the immediate risk of renewed conflict. Yet its long-term value will depend on whether sanctions relief remains tied to progress on Iran’s missiles, drones, proxy networks, and financial transparency.

Gestion des Conflits
Poland, Turkey, and NATO’s New Eastern Flank
Poland, Turkey, and NATO’s New Eastern Flank
Marek Magierowski1 July 20267 min
Publié

President Karol Nawrocki’s visit to Ankara underscored a growing strategic convergence between Poland and Turkey. Despite Ankara’s complex relationship with Moscow, Warsaw sees Turkey as an indispensable partner in strengthening NATO’s deterrence from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea.

Ordre Mondial
From Patron to Partner: How America’s Allies Are Adapting to a More Transactional United States

As Washington increasingly expects allies to assume greater responsibility for their own security and economic resilience, governments in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are reassessing long-standing assumptions about American leadership and protection.

Ordre Mondial
Japan and the Emerging Security Architecture of the Middle East

Japan’s dependence on Middle Eastern energy has traditionally encouraged a balanced regional policy. Yet Iran's growing alignment with China, Russia, and North Korea is reshaping the strategic environment in which Tokyo operates. As Japan becomes a more proactive security actor, new opportunities are emerging for cooperation with Israel and the Abraham Accords countries in security, technology, and connectivity initiatives such as IMEC linking India, the Gulf, Israel, and Europe.

Ordre Mondial
Beyond Drones: The Coming Age of Robotic Warfare
Beyond Drones: The Coming Age of Robotic Warfare
Michel Gurfinkiel17 June 20265 min
Publié

The drone revolution is entering a second phase: from unmanned aviation to integrated robotic warfare combining artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and real-time battlefield coordination.

Stratégies de Défense
The Arab Reassessment of Israel After the Iran War
The Arab Reassessment of Israel After the Iran War
Hussein Aboubakr Mansour10 June 20264 min
Publié

Following the 2026 war with Iran, Arab strategic thinking is undergoing a profound reassessment of Israel’s regional role. While Gulf and Arab governments increasingly recognize Israel’s military effectiveness against Iran, many analysts are simultaneously recasting Israel as a revisionist power. This paper examines the realist foundations of that reassessment and the ideological assumptions that continue to shape it.

Gestion des Conflits
Iranian State-Aligned Religious Networks: What Europe Can Learn from Bahrain and Kuwait

European governments increasingly face the challenge of protecting religious freedom while addressing concerns over foreign-state influence. Drawing on recent experiences in Bahrain and Kuwait, this paper examines how Iranian state-aligned networks may exploit religious institutions and charitable financing structures, and proposes measures to strengthen transparency without undermining legitimate worship. 

Contre-Terrorisme
EastMed and Europe’s Strategic Energy Sovereignty
Publié


The EastMed pipeline is unlikely to emerge through market logic alone. But in a post-Ukraine and post-Hormuz world, Europe may increasingly view it not as a commercial gas project, but as strategic infrastructure tied to sovereignty, maritime resilience, and geopolitical diversification.

Sécurité Énergétique
Hungary After Orbán: What Changes for Israel?
Hungary After Orbán: What Changes for Israel?
Marek Magierowski27 May 20267 min
Publié

The electoral defeat of Viktor Orbán and the rise of Péter Magyar mark the end of a uniquely close political relationship between Budapest and Jerusalem. While Hungary is unlikely to turn openly hostile toward Israel, the strategic and ideological alignment that defined the Orbán-Netanyahu era is coming to an end.

Ordre Mondial
Somaliland’s Strategic Value in the Red Sea Theatre

How Somaliland could become a strategically valuable partner for Israel and the US-led alliance system in the Red Sea theatre, provided engagement remains disciplined, defensive, and focused on maritime resilience rather than militarization.

Coopération Régionale
The Gulf’s New Security Architecture
The Gulf’s New Security Architecture
Ahdeya Ahmed Al Sayed 14 May 20268 min
Publié

The dismantling of IRGC-linked and Hezbollah-affiliated networks across the Gulf following the regional escalation of February 2026 revealed the emergence of hybrid proxy ecosystems operating across ideological, financial, cyber, and operational domains. Gulf security is increasingly shifting from traditional deterrence toward integrated intelligence architecture designed to confront decentralized transnational infrastructures before they mature into durable regional threats.

Coopération Régionale
The Post-OPEC Gulf: The UAE, Israel, and the New Geopolitics of Oil

The UAE’s departure from OPEC reflects a broader transformation of Middle Eastern geopolitics. Gulf states are increasingly pursuing national economic and security interests rather than coordinated oil policies, while the UAE is drawing closer to Israel and the United States in response to Iran and in competition with Saudi Arabia for regional influence.

Sécurité Énergétique
From Hormuz to Haifa: Rebuilding Energy Security Through the Abraham Accords

The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has exposed a structural flaw in global energy security. Replacing it requires more than alternative routes: it demands a reconfiguration of regional geopolitics. A land-based corridor system anchored in the Abraham Accords and centered on Israel offers the most credible pathway to secure Gulf–Europe energy flows.

Coopération Régionale
Defending Europe against the Interconnected Russian and Iranian Threats

Europe is likely to face growing Russian and Iranian air and missile threats in the coming months and years. These threats are interconnected and will require increased investments in defense and deterrence, especially given the uncertainties about the future of US protection to the continent.

Stratégies de Défense
From Battlefield to Leverage: Ukraine’s Emerging Role in Middle Eastern Security

Once perceived primarily as a recipient of international support, Ukraine is increasingly positioning itself as a provider of security expertise. Forged in war, its military innovation—especially in drone warfare and infrastructure targeting—is attracting growing interest in the Middle East, where states seek to hedge against uncertainty and evolving threats.

Stratégies de Défense
Italy at the Crossroads: Tactical Adjustment or Strategic Drift?

As Europe divides over the Middle East and domestic political pressures reshape foreign policy choices, Italy under Giorgia Meloni is navigating a growing tension between electoral constraints and strategic alignment—placing Rome at a crossroads between tactical repositioning and potential realignment within the Western alliance.

Ordre Mondial
Information Warfare and Freedom of Expression: The Case of Israel and the War in Gaza

In the digital age, information warfare exploits the vulnerabilities of liberal democracies by turning freedom of expression into a vehicle for disinformation, polarization, and radicalization. The handling of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict offers a particularly revealing illustration of this phenomenon.

Contre-Terrorisme
Beyond Tehran: The Real Battle After the Iran Ceasefire
Publié


A fragile ceasefire conceals a deeper strategic reality: the partial degradation of Iran’s military and proxy architecture, the persistence of an unresolved conflict, and the risk that premature restraint will allow a destabilizing system to recover rather than weaken further.

Gestion des Conflits
Military Force and Nuclear Proliferation: Revisiting the Historical Record

From the Cold War to Iran, nuclear proliferation has been shaped less by diplomatic norms than by strategic constraints and, in several decisive cases, by the use or credible threat of force.

Ordre Mondial
Holding the Strait: Maritime Order and the Case for a Coalition of the Willing


The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is not a regional disruption but a systemic test of global order. Iran’s strategy of calibrated coercion exposes the limits of naval superiority without political cohesion and makes the case for a coalition of free nations capable of sustaining deterrence across the Euro-Mediterranean and Middle Eastern space.

Stratégies de Défense
Air Superiority Is Not Enough: The Case for an Air Coalition of the Willing in Long-Duration Warfare

Air superiority no longer guarantees decisive outcomes. In an era of inexpensive drones and missiles, technologically advanced air forces face adversaries capable of sustaining long-duration aerial pressure. This paper argues that maintaining strategic effectiveness now requires collective endurance, and proposes a flexible Western Air Coalition of the Willing to align operational learning, industrial capacity, and technological innovation.

Stratégies de Défense
Proxy War and the Right of Self-Defense:
International Law and the Responsibility of Democracies

Proxy warfare and indirect aggression challenge traditional interpretations of international law governing the use of force. In this evolving strategic environment, defending the rule of law requires both a realistic understanding of the right of self-defense and greater solidarity among democracies confronting authoritarian regimes.

Organisations Internationales
Cyprus Under Fire: Europe’s Emerging Mediterranean Defense Shield

Iranian missile and drone attacks against Cyprus have triggered a coordinated European military response in the Eastern Mediterranean. The emerging “Cyprus Shield” could become the first practical experiment in collective European defense in the Mediterranean and a test case for Europe’s ability to secure its southern flank.

Stratégies de Défense
Europe, Iran, and the Limits of Transatlantic Alignment
Publié

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is exposing the limits of European military alignment with Washington. Domestic politics, economic vulnerabilities, and diverging threat perceptions are pushing most European governments, including close U.S. allies such as Poland, toward political support without direct military engagement.

Stratégies de Défense
1979 Reversed? The Geopolitics of a Post-Islamic Iran
Publié

The joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran could mark the beginning of the end of the geopolitical era inaugurated by the Islamic revolution of 1979, weakening political Islam, dismantling Tehran’s regional proxy system, and reshaping the global balance between revisionist powers and democratic alliances.

Ordre Mondial
Munich 2026 and the Multipolar Illusion
Munich 2026 and the Multipolar Illusion
Emmanuel Navon2 March 20265 min
Publié

The Munich Security Conference of 2026 portrayed the international system as fragmented, multipolar, and increasingly shaped by the “Global South.” This paper argues that the conference misread the structure of power: while multilateral institutions are weakening, power has not been evenly redistributed, American influence remains decisive though increasingly conditional, and contemporary alignments follow interests and capabilities rather than North–South divides.

Ordre Mondial
EM2C Statement on the War with Iran
EM2C Statement on the War with Iran
Emmanuel Navon28 February 20262 min
Publié

Western leaders and democratic governments now face a moment of truth

Contre-Terrorisme
India and Israel in the New Architecture of Free Nations
Publié

Connectivity corridors, military integration, and technological sovereignty are reshaping the international order. As the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor takes shape and deterrence converges across regions, India and Israel have emerged not as peripheral partners, but as a structural axis in a US-led coalition of contributing democracies.

Ordre Mondial
Four Years of War in Ukraine: Nuclear Deterrence and the Reconstitution of Western Power

Four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war has become a decisive test of Western deterrence. It has exposed the collapse of post-Cold War illusions, the return of nuclear intimidation, and the need to rebuild power on industrial, technological, and civilizational foundations.

Stratégies de Défense
The Board of Peace and Poland’s Painstaking Dilemma
The Board of Peace and Poland’s Painstaking Dilemma
Marek Magierowski14 February 20265 min
Publié

Poland’s hesitation over joining the U.S.-backed Board of Peace reflects not indecision, but a deeper strategic tension between domestic politics, constitutional constraints, transatlantic relations, and Warsaw’s underappreciated interests in the Middle East.

Organisations Internationales
Defense Begins in the Ground: Critical Minerals and the Architecture of Collective Security


In the twenty-first century, deterrence no longer rests solely on weapons systems and troop deployments. It rests on supply chains. Critical minerals are the material foundation of modern military power, and the resilience of democratic alliances now depends on their ability to secure them collectively.

Stratégies de Défense
Japan and the New Geometry of Power
Japan and the New Geometry of Power
Emmanuel Navon10 February 20267 min
Publié

Japan’s strategic turn reframes the Western debate over autonomy and alignment, and highlights Israel’s role in the emerging architecture of free nations and tech-driven economies.

Ordre Mondial
Should the Board of Peace Replace the United Nations?
Publié

The Board of Peace is not the problem: it is a symptom of the United Nations’ structural paralysis and the urgent need to rethink collective security among democracies.

Organisations InternationalesOrdre Mondial
Europe and the Overhaul of the World Order
Europe and the Overhaul of the World Order
Emmanuel Navon15 January 202610 min
Publié

Europe’s unease over U.S. moves in Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland is understandable; but as autocracies weaponize the law and alliances strain, the defense of the world order requires strategic clarity, not procedural paralysis.

Ordre Mondial
Why Europe Needs Israel in Trump's New World Order
Why Europe Needs Israel in Trump's New World Order
Emmanuel Navon15 January 20268 min
Publié

The Trump Administration's National Security Strategy marks a break with decades of U.S. foreign policy. Europe is no longer central, while Israel sits firmly inside Pax Silica. This paper argues that partnering with Israel offers European states a strategic pathway to regain proximity to American power through technology, energy, and security cooperation.

Ordre Mondial
Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland
Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland
Emmanuel Navon14 January 202618 min
Publié

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland challenges long-standing diplomatic taboos in the Horn of Africa. Grounded in legal logic and strategic necessity, the move reflects shifting priorities in Red Sea security and great-power competition.

Regional Cooperation
Hamas' Exploitation of Humanitarian NGOs in Europe: Risks to European Security, Law, and Humanitarian Action

Hamas’ systematic capture of humanitarian aid structures exposes Europe to legal, security, and reputational risks. Closing the gap between counter-terrorism law and humanitarian practice is essential to protect both civilian assistance and European credibility.

Counter Terrorism
Why The European Union Should Designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization

Europe’s counterterrorism framework has failed to address transnational Islamist movements operating through non-violent, legally embedded strategies. This paper argues that the Muslim Brotherhood represents a coherent ideological and organizational threat that EU law is already equipped to confront.

Counter Terrorism
IMEC Corridor: The Strategic Value of Trieste
IMEC Corridor: The Strategic Value of Trieste
Maurizio Molinari31 December 202512 min
Publié

As supply chains become instruments of power, IMEC offers trusted connectivity linking the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, and Europe. Trieste’s geography, rail integration, and Euro-Atlantic anchoring make it a uniquely resilient European gateway for the corridor.

Regional Cooperation
Europe, Israel, and America's New Strategic Order
Europe, Israel, and America's New Strategic Order
Emmanuel Navon19 December 202510 min
Publié

The Trump Administration's National Security Strategy reflects a structural reordering of U.S. foreign policy priorities where Europe is no longer central. This paper argues that closer cooperation with Israel offers Europe its most credible pathway back into America's strategic core through technological edge and political reliability.

World Order
Israel–Egypt Gas Cooperation and the Strategic Reconfiguration of the Eastern Mediterranean

Israel’s new long-term gas agreement with Egypt is more than a commercial breakthrough: it anchors a durable energy corridor linking Israeli supply, Egyptian LNG infrastructure, and European demand. In doing so, it reshapes the Eastern Mediterranean into a strategic platform for European diversification, Egyptian stability, and transatlantic alignment.

EnergySécurité Énergétique
Europe, Israel, and the War in Nigeria: A Framework for Coordinated Action

Nigeria’s multidimensional crisis threatens regional stability and Western strategic interests. A coordinated European-Israeli-American approach is essential to restore security, strengthen governance, and counter the growing influence of extremist and rival powers in West Africa.

Conflict Management
Ending Incitement: Why Europe Must Condition Aid to the Palestinian Authority on Reforming Its School Curriculum

Despite years of European funding and diplomatic pressure, the Palestinian Authority’s school curriculum continues to promote antisemitism, glorify violence, and deny Israel’s legitimacy. This paper argues that only strict, enforceable EU conditionality can align Palestinian education with peace and coexistence.

Contre-Terrorisme
The Meaning of 2803
The Meaning of 2803
Emmanuel Navon18 November 202512 min
Publié

UNSC Resolution 2803 gives international legitimacy to President Trump’s Gaza plan, authorizing an international stabilization force and a transitional governance body. For Israel, it offers both strategic opportunities and new risks, especially in the context of Saudi Arabia’s F-35 acquisition.

Organisations Internationales
Europe, Israel, and Kazakhstan: A Strategic Opportunity in Central Asia

Kazakhstan’s accession to the Abraham Accords opens a new geopolitical triangle linking Europe, Israel, and Central Asia. By combining resources, innovation, and connectivity, this partnership offers a strategic counterweight to Russian and Chinese influence in Eurasia.

Regional Cooperation
Europe, Israel and the War in Sudan: A Strategic Vision for Joint Action and Regional Stability

Sudan’s collapse is reshaping the Red Sea, the Sahel, and Mediterranean security. Coordinated European-Israeli action can help stabilize the region, protect maritime routes, and mitigate one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Conflict Management
Israel Acted in Self-Defense by Launching Strikes Against Iran on 13 June 2025

This paper provides comprehensive legal arguments demonstrating that Israel acted in self-defense by launching strikes against Iran on June 13, 2025, based on Article 51 of the UN Charter, documenting Iranian acts of aggression since 1979 and explicit statements by senior Iranian officials expressing their intention to destroy the State of Israel.

IsraelIranMoyen-Orient